Damage spatial correlation

UN Photo/Logan Abassi United Nations Development Programme / CC BY

The extent of damage to buildings caused by earthquakes is affected by different structural properties as well as the location of the sites themselves. Nearby measurements tend to be more related than those further away. While factors such as ground motion intensity can explain part of this, there is residual spatial correlation due to unknown factors and/or factors we do not have covariate data for. Since ignoring this effect result in the underestimation of damage extremes for regional portfolios, I’m currently working with Sabine Loos and David Lallemant on a project to account for spatial correlation in probabilistic damage models.